Thoughts from Credit Suisse’s Therapeutics Team https://www.credit-suisse.com. Once a vaccine is approved than vaccinations can begin. The first group to get the vaccine will be front-line healthcare workers and long term care facility residents, essential workers, and the third group will be adults with high risk medical conditions, over 65.
The question is how long will it be before we are back to normal? The experts expect that restrictions could ease in late 3Q/4Q 2021. The experts suggest that 90% of the population will need to be vaccinated to reduce Ro to below 1. (Ro, is the reproduction number used to describe the intensity of an infectious disease outbreak.)
Also, the question is how long does it take from the first shot to gain maximum protection? Some Pfizer data suggests there is protection by day 14 after dose 1. However, a booster shot is absolutely needed with the Pfizer vaccine after 21 days and is needed 28 days after the vaccine produced by MODERNA. 95% efficacy begins 7 days after the second dose or 4-5 weeks after the first shot.
Experts do not know yet if these vaccines can prevent asymptomatic transmission of the virus. Still data suggests that if you are vaccinated and then infected, the amount of the virus that you shed is likely far less than it would be without the vaccine. As of yet, scientists still do not know how long the protection lasts. However, some studies suggest it could be more than one year.