A computer simulation to explore the impact of measles outbreaks in cities across the U.S. was recently unveiled at the University of Pittsburgh, Graduate School of Public Health www.publichealth.pitt.edu. The computer simulation will be used to explore how an outbreak would play out if a specific city had high or low vaccination rates.
The computer simulation easily accessible from mobile devices is an adaption of the ‘Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics” (FRED) http://fred.publichealth.pitt.edu/measles project. FRED is a free resource for people to use to select cities they are interested in and want to know about the vaccination and outbreak rate.
FRED was created at Pitt’s “Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) www.midas.ptt.edu Center of Excellence and is supported by NIH’s National Institute of General Medical Sciences www.nigms.nih.gov. MIDAS investigates novel computational and mathematical models of existing and emerging infectious diseases to guide intervention strategies.
FRED users can look at a map of any major metropolitan area in the U.S. and see how one case of measles can turn into a major outbreak or be quickly quashed, all depending on the vaccination rates of a community.
According to Donald S. Burke, M.D., Pitt Public Health Dean and UPMC Jonas Salk, Chair of Global Health, “Examining the impact of high and low vaccination rates allows people to grasp the concept of herd immunity”.
The CDC estimates that when 95 percent of a community or what is called the “herd” is vaccinated against measles, the five percent who can’t be vaccinated because they are too young, have compromised immune systems, the immunity wore off or never took hold should be protected because the virus can’t gain a foothold and spread. When vaccination rates dip too low, the herd isn’t protected and measles can sweep through a community.
Future iterations of FRED will allow users to adjust vaccination rates and experiment with how closing schools can affect an outbreak. “Teachers could use FRED to help their students get a hands-on look at how public health interventions impact an infectious disease outbreak,” said FRED creator John Grefenstette, PhD Professor of Health Policy and Management at Pitt Public Health.
It also many help pediatricians open a dialogue with parents who may not want to vaccinate their children plus public health officials and policy makers could use it to explain vaccination campaigns.